Meticulous Research®, a leading global provider of market intelligence, has announced the release of its latest comprehensive research report titled “Automotive Transmission Market by Type (Manual Transmission, Automated Manual Transmission, and Semi-automated Manual Transmission), Engine Type (Petrol Engine and Diesel Engine), Vehicle Type, Sales Channel, and Geography—Global Forecast to 2031.” The report projects that the global automotive transmission market will grow at a CAGR of 5.4% from 2024 to 2031, reaching an estimated $146.2 billion by 2031.
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Key Market Drivers and Challenges
The growth of the automotive transmission market is primarily driven by rapid advancements in transmission technology, the global push for enhanced fuel efficiency, and increasingly stringent regulatory emission standards. These factors, combined with the rising integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning technologies in transmission systems, are expected to present significant growth opportunities in the coming years. Additionally, the trend among automakers to adopt lightweight and energy-efficient materials further boosts the market outlook.
However, the market faces challenges related to the complexity of advanced transmission systems and fluctuations in raw material prices. Moreover, ongoing supply chain disruptions pose a significant risk, potentially impeding the market’s growth trajectory over the forecast period.
Market Segmentation Highlights
By Transmission Type:
The global automotive transmission market is categorized into manual transmissions, automated manual transmissions (sub-divided into automatic, continuously variable, and dual-clutch transmissions), and semi-automated manual transmissions. In 2024, the manual transmission segment is forecasted to dominate the market with a 48.0% share. The sustained preference for manual transmissions is attributed to their superior fuel efficiency, which is increasingly appealing to environmentally conscious consumers. Particularly in regions where high fuel prices and strict environmental standards prevail, manual transmission vehicles remain a favored choice for optimizing fuel consumption and reducing carbon footprints.
However, automated manual transmissions are expected to experience the highest growth during the forecast period. These systems offer the convenience of automatic transmission while retaining the control of manual systems, driving their adoption. Key developments include ZF Friedrichshafen AG’s (Germany) launch of the PowerLine 8-speed automatic transmission, marking a significant expansion in automated transmission technology. Similarly, Tata Motors (India) introduced the first CNG cars equipped with automated manual transmission (AMT) technology in January 2024, reinforcing the shift toward automation in vehicle transmission.
By Engine Type:
The market is segmented by engine type into petrol and diesel engines. In 2024, petrol engines are expected to lead the market, holding a 56.0% share. The increasing compatibility of automated transmissions with petrol engines, such as continuously variable transmissions (CVTs) and dual-clutch transmissions (DCTs), is a key factor driving growth in this segment. Petrol engine vehicles equipped with automated transmissions offer enhanced driving dynamics, better performance, and optimized fuel efficiency, meeting the needs of both performance enthusiasts and environmentally aware consumers.
This segment is also anticipated to witness the highest CAGR through 2031, as automakers continue to enhance automated transmission technologies specifically for petrol-powered vehicles.
By Vehicle Type:
Passenger cars are projected to hold the largest share of the global automotive transmission market in 2024, accounting for 47.0%. The increasing adoption of advanced transmission technologies, including CVTs and DCTs, in passenger vehicles is fueling this growth. As the passenger vehicle market represents the largest share of global vehicle production and sales, the demand for sophisticated transmission systems in this segment remains robust.
Further driving growth is the adoption of automated transmissions in urban environments, where congestion and stop-and-go traffic are prevalent. These systems provide smoother, more efficient driving experiences, reinforcing their appeal in densely populated regions. The passenger car segment is also poised for the highest CAGR during the forecast period, reflecting the continued dominance of this vehicle category.
By Sales Channel:
Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are expected to maintain the largest share of the automotive transmission market in 2024, with an 85.0% share. The market dominance of OEMs is attributed to their strategic expansion efforts in emerging markets and their collaboration with technology firms to integrate cutting-edge transmission systems into vehicles. OEMs are continuously innovating to cater to the growing demand for advanced, high-efficiency transmissions, tailored to both regional and global markets.
Geographical Insights
Geographically, Asia-Pacific is set to lead the global automotive transmission market in 2024, holding 41.0% of the total market share. The region’s rapid urbanization, rising disposable incomes, and expanding middle-class populations are key factors driving vehicle ownership and replacement cycles. Moreover, the growing preference for automatic transmission systems in Asia-Pacific, driven by urban traffic congestion and the demand for smoother driving experiences, is bolstering market growth. Countries such as China, India, Japan, and South Korea are expected to contribute significantly to this upward trajectory.
Additionally, regional players are investing heavily in transmission technologies. Aisin Corporation (Japan) recently showcased innovative electrification technologies at the 2023 Detroit Auto Show, which included advanced hybrid transmission systems aimed at enhancing energy efficiency.
Key Players
The competitive landscape of the global automotive transmission market is shaped by key players such as ZF Friedrichshafen AG (Germany), Magna International Inc. (Canada), BorgWarner Inc. (U.S.), Continental AG (Germany), Eaton Corporation plc (U.S.), Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. (U.S.), Marelli Holdings Co., Ltd. (Japan), AISIN Group (Japan), Bonfiglioli S.P.A (China), Hyundai Transys Inc. (South Korea), Musashi Seimitsu Industry Co., Ltd. (Japan), Schaeffler AG (Germany), Vitesco Technologies Group AG (Germany), GKN plc (U.K.), and KATE LLC (Russia). These companies continue to innovate and expand their portfolios, contributing to the sustained growth of the automotive transmission market.
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