The impact of COVID-19 is expected to be severe during 2021, due to the slowdown in the economic activity during the lockdown, few wind projects went on hold and are likely to restart from the year 2021. Factors such as upcoming new wind projects, the declining costs of wind technologies are becoming competitive with fossil fuel sources, and additional subsidies on wind energy systems are further driving the wind energy market. On the other hand, in the absence of any new initiatives, an underdeveloped power grid of Canada is expected to hinder the growth of the wind energy market in the coming years.
The onshore wind power is expected to dominate the market owing to high investment and better wind current, thus, providing economic viability for large projects.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change, Canada is committed to reducing greenhouse gases (GHG) by at least 80% below 2005 levels by 2050. Since among Canadian renewable energy sources, wind energy contributes low-cost power and flexibility to a modernized electricity grid, this, in turn, is expected to provide a better opportunity to the Canadian wind energy market in the coming future.
Upcoming projects and investments in wind energy is likely to drive the wind energy market in Canada during the forecast period.
Key Market Trends
Onshore Segment to Dominate the Market
In 2019, Canada increased its installed wind power capacity by 597 MW, registering a 5% increase over the previous year. All of the new wind capacity added in 2018 came from the onshore project, and the year 2019 witnessed the completion of five onshore projects, representing over USD 1 billion investment. Moreover, according to the Canadian renewable association, around 166 MW of new wind power generation installed in 2020.
As of 2019, Canada ranked ninth in the world in terms of total onshore installed capacity. There were 301 wind farms and 6,771 wind turbines operating across the country, as of 2019. In addition, the country witnessed around 70% dip in wind energy costs during 2009-2019.
In Jan 2020, Oinpegitjoig (Richibucto) Wind Project (3.5 MW), a single turbine wind energy project, was commissioned in Richibucto, New Brunswick. This project is part of New Brunswick Power's Embedded Generation Program for small community-owned generators to help the province reach its goals set out in the New Brunswick's Energy Blueprint of achieving 40% of its electricity supply from renewable sources. The Oinpegitjoig Wind Project is estimated to supply enough electricity to power approximately 900 homes per year.
Moreover, the country has a policy in place under its energy transition law, to generate more than half of its electricity using clean energy sources by 2030, and long-term electricity auctions support this target. The Canadian government was primarily focusing on expanding and liberalizing the electricity market, by opening the industry to private and foreign investments, which may drive the onshore wind energy market during the forecast period.
Hence, with several onshore wind energy projects under operation and others in the planning and construction phase, owing to investment and government policies, the Canadian wind energy market is expected to grow during the forecast period.
Upcoming Projects and Investments in Wind Energy Likely to Drive the Market
Canada has vast reserves of high-quality, cost-competitive wind energy resources. Owing to this, Canada holds the second-largest installed wind power capacity in North America, with a total installed capacity of 13,413 MW in 2019. This installed capacity is enough to power approximately 3.4 million homes in the country.
With the increasing need for affordable, reliable, clean, and diverse electricity supply, the government and utilities across the nation are increasingly considering wind power as a solution. Moreover, with the country’s unparalleled wind resources, there are ample opportunities to maximize the economic and environmental benefits associated with the development of wind energy.
Moreover, as of 2019, Canada had 31 offshore wind farm projects. These projects are currently neither operating nor in the build phase, and they have not been consented or have applied for consent. Furthermore, the construction of none of these projects has progressed enough to connect the turbines and generate electricity. These projects are expected to start from 2021 to 2022.
As of Nov 2020, BHE Canada is developing a new 117.6 MW Rattlesnake Ridge Wind project farm in southeast Alberta, providing low-cost, clean energy. The project is expected to begin operation by December 2021. Once the project is complete, the wind farm produces 475 GWh per year (approx.), which is enough to supply energy to the equivalent of 79,000 homes.
The country has been looking for opportunities and potential locations across the national boundaries for new projects. In the past few years, Alberta emerged as an attractive market for investors, as it is likely to witness about USD 8.3 billion of investment for developing wind energy projects by 2030.
In 2018, the Government of Alberta announced five new wind power projects, with a value of USD 1.2 billion, under its renewable electricity program. The project is expected to generate about 760 MW of affordable renewable electricity, enough to power nearly 300,000 homes. Apart from Alberta, Saskatchewan is likely to witness huge investments, as the province aims to increase its renewable capacity to 50% by 2030.
For instance, with an investment of USD 630 million, the Wild Rose Onshore Wind Farm project (409.6 MW), located in Alberta, is in the development stage and is expected to start in 2022. The construction is executed in two phases: Wind Rose 1 (217.6 MW) and Wind Rose 2 (192MW).
According to the Canadian renewable energy association, 745 MW capacity of wind energy projects are under construction, and for commissioning in 2021. Hence, the above-mentioned factors are likely to drive the Canadian wind energy market during the forecast period.
Competitive Landscape
The Canada wind energy market is moderately fragmented. The major companies include Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy SA, General Electric Company, Vestas Wind Systems A/S, Acciona SA, and Capital Power Corporation.
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