[MORAYFIELD, 24/04/2023]. After three consecutive years of immense floods and record rainfall in northern and eastern Australia, La Niña is finally on its way out. A pattern has recently become noticeable when it comes to the nation's yearly weather fluctuations - anything other than La Niña or its Indian Ocean equivalent has almost been indistinguishable from one another.

Extreme Heat Expected

An examination of records indicates that, in Australia, rain and temperatures during neutral and El years have become almost indistinguishable. This became evident throughout 2018 and 2019 when severe drought and heatwave events occurred without any El Niño presence. As three consecutive La Niña years come to a close, it appears probable that hot temperatures and arid conditions will emerge in 2023, regardless of what weather patterns form in the Pacific Ocean.

Rainfall Deficits

Recent years have been indicators of a long-term trend, indicating that Australia could soon face rainfall deficits and extreme heat regardless of whether El Niño develops. Without wet climate drivers similar to 2001 - 2006, when southeastern states received below-average rain per year, they can quickly find themselves in a drought-like situation with dust storms, bushfires, and low water levels. Everyone must take proactive steps now to avoid their future filled with these disasters!

Climate Change

The effects of prolonged droughts are becoming more extreme due to climate change, as heightened temperatures reduce soil and plant moisture while facilitating wildfire growth. El Niño is the term used for a warm period in the Pacific Ocean near the equator that causes convection and clouds to form over central parts of this sea, resulting in less rain across Indonesia and Australia but an increase elsewhere.

El Niño Strength

According to the models of some national weather agencies, there is a heightened risk that an extreme El Niño could occur this year - temperatures in the Pacific may reach 2 degrees Celsius above average.

Dr. Mike McPhaden from NOAA declared that the intensity of anticipated El Niños is highly variable and could range from "blockbuster to wimp." On Thursday, NOA released its latest outlook, indicating a 40 percent probability for temperatures increasing above 1.5 degrees Celsius by December 2020, indicating active, strong El Niño conditions.

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